Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.181716 0.212066 0.245359 0.284514 0.329224 0.378602 0.437181
2025-12-07 0.125825 0.165480 0.213713 0.276327 0.355049 0.450297 0.573770
2025-12-14 0.094556 0.136229 0.191020 0.267545 0.370734 0.503994 0.687853
2025-12-21 0.074815 0.116420 0.174809 0.261435 0.385091 0.553361 0.797296
2025-12-28 0.063542 0.105708 0.168293 0.266031 0.412382 0.620377 0.934419
2026-01-04 0.056002 0.098910 0.165855 0.275233 0.445985 0.697938 1.091844
2026-01-11 0.049219 0.091966 0.161837 0.280869 0.473933 0.768698 1.244273
2026-01-18 0.043089 0.084964 0.156508 0.283283 0.496378 0.832182 1.389904
2026-01-25 0.037656 0.078208 0.150491 0.283458 0.514611 0.889813 1.530006
2026-02-01 0.032591 0.071236 0.143037 0.280001 0.525944 0.936622 1.655557
2026-02-08 0.028188 0.064776 0.135555 0.275386 0.534404 0.978745 1.775756
2026-02-15 0.023827 0.057625 0.125741 0.265148 0.531529 1.000919 1.863341
2026-02-22 0.022656 0.057155 0.129058 0.280513 0.577287 1.111643 2.112518
2026-03-01 0.019372 0.051431 0.121011 0.272705 0.578966 1.144651 2.228492
2026-03-08 0.016514 0.046141 0.113079 0.264050 0.577905 1.172188 2.336091
2026-03-15 0.014276 0.041912 0.106814 0.258014 0.581199 1.207656 2.460133
2026-03-22 0.013057 0.040032 0.105557 0.262556 0.606257 1.285993 2.669110
2026-03-29 0.012248 0.039088 0.106335 0.271649 0.641507 1.386376 2.926250
2026-04-05 0.011309 0.037608 0.105619 0.277219 0.669661 1.474574 3.165233
2026-04-12 0.010301 0.035731 0.103651 0.279605 0.691007 1.550424 3.384493
2026-04-19 0.009300 0.033669 0.100910 0.279778 0.707338 1.616930 3.588895
2026-04-26 0.008258 0.031261 0.096907 0.276361 0.715139 1.666108 3.761047
2026-05-03 0.007295 0.028894 0.092660 0.271801 0.719793 1.708787 3.922226